The crazies are coming out. I don't mean the people touting the end of the world. I am talking about the people that believe that horse pucky. It is one thing to produce an end of the world special for the History Channel, another entirely to believe that silly tripe.
On the other hand, there is a lot of money in Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD). FYI FUD was created by IBM.
Here I think there is a great deal of the fun with poking fun with the opposite story. Here are a few good zingers to throw around at the water cooler when people start chatting up the various Discovery Channel specials:
The Aztecs couldn't predict their way out of death-by-Spaniards. Why predict the end of the world in 2012?
The Aztec calendar does not end in 2012, it simply resets. There isn't a mushroom cloud or even aliens on that last day. Heck, our calendars are so much better to predict that January 1st 2012 is New Years Day. Look it up if you don't believe me.
They say that Nostradamus predicted the fall of the twin towers. Really? I don't remember anyone hanging out in the lobby that day shooing people away because it was the day.
Nostradamus had gout. He was said to be a healer? Oh, and he died at about age 62, hardly a sage age. None of that rising from the dead stuff either. David Blaine is harder act to follow.
Nostradanus wrote in quatrains and you can say either it was in code or riddles, but why not in the clear French he spoke?
The Aztec calendar was wheel-shaped. Do you really think that a calendar shapped like a wheel could predict the end of time when they could not have invented the actual 'wheel''?
The Aztecs had blood sacrifices. So, how did that work out for them? Did it prevent their demise as a culture?
Nostradamus died with today's equivalent of $300 thousand dollars. Not bad for being psychic without having to prove everything was really predicted accurately.
Alvin Toffler (Future Shock and The Third Wave), probably has a better record than Nostradomas for predictions because he wrote in clear English. Though Alvin did predict that a large part of society would become nomads and that the Mobile Home was the future of housing. Guess that means he didn't predict the housing credit crash either.
The Bible predicts the end of the world too, no surprise. But the book of Revelations was written between the years 68 and 96 A.D. But why not spill the beans in Genesis? Why wait? Why get people all hot and bothered when the end times can't be put on the calendar you got for Christmas? Why the suspense?
Why not just 2000 years? Did we really have to wait for Bush to end his term? Seems a little arbitrary to tack on an extra 12 as well. It's all just a tease! I'll bet they end up changing the date... again! Who want's in on the End Times betting pool. I got $20 on April 1, 2020.
Faith Popcorn is said to have a low return on her predictions too. What do Toffler and Popcorn have in common, they wrote in clear English, not riddles. But they both got some things right. They predicted the future too, not divine it.
What about the last time the world ended? Get in line, here it comes again!
I'm seriously thinking of writing an end-of-the-world book. People will buy it. When the chips are down people will believe anything that wiggles the crazy meter. You don't even have to prove anything. There are a lot of options:
How The World Will End
Digging Your Shelter - Five Shelter Designs From Home Depot
Top five religions to be a part of when the world ends - or, Improving your odds of the hereafter in 2012.
How to make money after the world ends!
Fifty Pithy Phrases For Your Last Words
Introducing Yourself To Your Alien Overlords
What To Do New Years 2013 With Your 2012 End-Of-The-World Hoard
Revelations in Marketing - How to sell your products to the end of time
I'd ask you to comment, but why? Don't want to get between you and your family with less than 3 years to go. But if you have a new date and time for the end of the world, I'd like to know. I need better lead time on the marketing budget.
Here is my other blog of the end of the world. The book will be coming soon!
FYI this is a version of a blog moved from a limited membership blog site at http://www.triiibes.com/. I am moving many of those blog entries here for your entertainment and enlightenment.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Monday, April 27, 2009
Teenagers Can't See Your Point of View - Can you fix that?
New Scientist is full of fun stuff this week. There is an article today about how teens and their inability to see another person's point of view.
This is called Theory of Mind. Wikipedia says: Theory of mind is the ability to attribute mental states—beliefs, intents, desires, pretending, knowledge, etc.—to oneself and others and to understand that others have beliefs, desires and intentions that are different from one's own.
According to the article, Theory of Mind gets better as we grow older and that's good news! But you need to really work hard to deal with teens to overcome this.
The article has more bad news saying, "adolescents show strong egocentric behaviour that is very similar to that of young children..." I sort of translate into 15 years old with terrible two's syndrome.
What might this all mean? How could we use this? I suspect that you cannot impose your will or give examples. You could lead and see if they follow. My guess however is that you really need to ask a lot of questions and use their directed opinions to whittle down the possibilities.
You: "What is cool/rocken/all-that/phat/spiffy/mayonnaise to you?"
Teen: "I think X is spastic!"
You: "Why is X... well, spastic?"
Teen: "Because it's what Slink Borders all wear."
You: "So what are Slink Borders?"
Teen: "They are ..."
Eventually you get to some sort of understanding. You figure out what Slink Borders are and what they do, say, believe, and consume. You see how close the teen is to these and you have a better understanding of their point of view and motivations. Pick a subject and work your way around it.
Teaching Theory of Mind is a bit different. Sadly I have found few good references because a lot of this is aimed at Autism and not teenagers. I did find this paper, but it is long and scholarly and I must be off to work. Read it at your leisure.
One more thing to add. People can loose their Theory of Mind over time or may have functional Asperberger's syndrome. In either case we have high functioning adults that seem like angry assholes. They can't understand why the world is so stupid. I have and currently know many of these people. One was officially diagnosed with Asperberger's when he was about 40 years old. He was like a 185 I.Q. train wreck.
Others I know with impaired Theory of Mind are less problematic, but I must say they are really bad. Lots of yelling. World against them. It is worse as stress gets higher. They just fail to see the implications of their actions and anger. Think of the sales mistakes.... The overselling. Not listening. Jumping before understanding a key word.
I am going to be reading a lot more on Theory of Mind and training/confronting those impaired. It seems like a very skill to be good at. My goal would be to learn to do this without the other person noticing. Nobody likes the implication that their thought process in wrong. That is why a lot of stuff bounces off teenagers.
I will caution. There are also Narcissists out there. They could really be Asperberger's, but they are far nastier. Very often they will say they are everyone's friend but they exude evil from every pore. These folks can't be changed. Don't bother. Get far far away.
The common misconception is that Narcissists are egotists. Truth is that Narcissists feel out of control a lot of the time and gain that control by manipulating others to feel out of control. In other words, they are in their element when you are a complete and total failure and pulling your hair out.
Almost forgot. What is your opinion? Words of wisdom? War stories? Stand up, take a break and start writing!
This is called Theory of Mind. Wikipedia says: Theory of mind is the ability to attribute mental states—beliefs, intents, desires, pretending, knowledge, etc.—to oneself and others and to understand that others have beliefs, desires and intentions that are different from one's own.
According to the article, Theory of Mind gets better as we grow older and that's good news! But you need to really work hard to deal with teens to overcome this.
The article has more bad news saying, "adolescents show strong egocentric behaviour that is very similar to that of young children..." I sort of translate into 15 years old with terrible two's syndrome.
What might this all mean? How could we use this? I suspect that you cannot impose your will or give examples. You could lead and see if they follow. My guess however is that you really need to ask a lot of questions and use their directed opinions to whittle down the possibilities.
You: "What is cool/rocken/all-that/phat/spiffy/mayonnaise to you?"
Teen: "I think X is spastic!"
You: "Why is X... well, spastic?"
Teen: "Because it's what Slink Borders all wear."
You: "So what are Slink Borders?"
Teen: "They are ..."
Eventually you get to some sort of understanding. You figure out what Slink Borders are and what they do, say, believe, and consume. You see how close the teen is to these and you have a better understanding of their point of view and motivations. Pick a subject and work your way around it.
Teaching Theory of Mind is a bit different. Sadly I have found few good references because a lot of this is aimed at Autism and not teenagers. I did find this paper, but it is long and scholarly and I must be off to work. Read it at your leisure.
One more thing to add. People can loose their Theory of Mind over time or may have functional Asperberger's syndrome. In either case we have high functioning adults that seem like angry assholes. They can't understand why the world is so stupid. I have and currently know many of these people. One was officially diagnosed with Asperberger's when he was about 40 years old. He was like a 185 I.Q. train wreck.
Others I know with impaired Theory of Mind are less problematic, but I must say they are really bad. Lots of yelling. World against them. It is worse as stress gets higher. They just fail to see the implications of their actions and anger. Think of the sales mistakes.... The overselling. Not listening. Jumping before understanding a key word.
I am going to be reading a lot more on Theory of Mind and training/confronting those impaired. It seems like a very skill to be good at. My goal would be to learn to do this without the other person noticing. Nobody likes the implication that their thought process in wrong. That is why a lot of stuff bounces off teenagers.
I will caution. There are also Narcissists out there. They could really be Asperberger's, but they are far nastier. Very often they will say they are everyone's friend but they exude evil from every pore. These folks can't be changed. Don't bother. Get far far away.
The common misconception is that Narcissists are egotists. Truth is that Narcissists feel out of control a lot of the time and gain that control by manipulating others to feel out of control. In other words, they are in their element when you are a complete and total failure and pulling your hair out.
Almost forgot. What is your opinion? Words of wisdom? War stories? Stand up, take a break and start writing!
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Why crying wolf pays and how to shame that little boy into honesty and positivity
Mary Louise Penaz (you need to be a member of Triiibes) made a comment on an earlier blog of mine about the end of the word:
Mary said "...and who doesn't like being right? Right?"
It made me think about why there are so many detractors and especially a lot of doomsayers.
Predictors of the future are always right until the future is the past. For those that predict with riddles, they will always be right while there is a shred that they could be right sometime soon.
I think the 'cry wolf' story is like this. There are wolves. Crying wolf is never wrong because there 'might' be a wolf. It just wasn't there when you came to help or you scared it away. See how good it was for me to cry wolf? Eventually there will be a wolf. Yeah, we missed all those wolves, but that last time that little kid was dead on. Smart kid!!!
It is amazing though that it is far easier to believe that something will go wrong. What is the ratio of people that believe that aliens will come and shower us in a golden age verses all those that believe in the end of the world?
It is easier to be right about failure than success. I think this is because wrong is wrong. Right can be easily cast as wrong or even not totally right. A successful product can be wrong even if it brings in millions because it could have brought tens of millions.
It is easy to pick apart success and hard to find silver linings in failure without still seeing the failure.
But how do you stop this sort of thing? How do you stop the hobby of doom and gloom spreaders?
I actually have this issue in my tribe. Why does a customer want that? They say it rhetorically and dismissively. There is no question because they see no value. What's a product manager to do?
The key offense is to force them to write positives first. We do that in our product vision. It help set the stage. I also never respond to one negative with one positive. The equation is lopsided in tit for tat. One bad has more points that one good, even when it is a home run of a zinger.
Another good comeback is to challenge. Get them to write the list of possibilities for good. What are the 5 success factors? What do you think will be the five most used features? If that is a problem, what are three possible solutions?
But be careful. Never ask, "so, what would you suggest instead?" This is too open. Ten to one, this guy hasn't a clue. At least I've yet to meet one that had enough mental foresight to buy even a discount clue. They are dissing your idea because they are defending their empty wasteland of ideas. You'll hear the tension and anger in their voice. Tread carefully because exposing this fact will create a shit storm. Concentrate on the attack, not the attacker. You don't win a fight by questioning if the guy's father and mother were related before they were married.
Keep on point. Don't allow the conversation to waver away from the subject the guy is dissing. You can not reward negativity with a voice and a lever of power.
Get a copy of a book on how to argue and a few books on critical thinking. Keept the examples with you written on little cards with the reference. Put them in your slides to cut off the types of arguments you know you are going to hear. Think of the argument and disprove it before the peanut gallery even wakes up.
There are a lot of web resources, like this one. Just type illogical argument into Google to get a bunch.
BTW, you want to have the worst arguments and have the most animosity? Try running a meeting with Robert's Rules of Order. Take my word for it and don't let it happen to you. The issue is that all it takes is one negative space cowboy to take over. Put one guy in charge and force them to read a bunch on controlling meetings, critical thinking, and detecting illogical arguments.
Have a fantastic win against a negative nelly lately? How did you do it? Give us the play by play.
Mary said "...and who doesn't like being right? Right?"
It made me think about why there are so many detractors and especially a lot of doomsayers.
Predictors of the future are always right until the future is the past. For those that predict with riddles, they will always be right while there is a shred that they could be right sometime soon.
I think the 'cry wolf' story is like this. There are wolves. Crying wolf is never wrong because there 'might' be a wolf. It just wasn't there when you came to help or you scared it away. See how good it was for me to cry wolf? Eventually there will be a wolf. Yeah, we missed all those wolves, but that last time that little kid was dead on. Smart kid!!!
It is amazing though that it is far easier to believe that something will go wrong. What is the ratio of people that believe that aliens will come and shower us in a golden age verses all those that believe in the end of the world?
It is easier to be right about failure than success. I think this is because wrong is wrong. Right can be easily cast as wrong or even not totally right. A successful product can be wrong even if it brings in millions because it could have brought tens of millions.
It is easy to pick apart success and hard to find silver linings in failure without still seeing the failure.
But how do you stop this sort of thing? How do you stop the hobby of doom and gloom spreaders?
I actually have this issue in my tribe. Why does a customer want that? They say it rhetorically and dismissively. There is no question because they see no value. What's a product manager to do?
The key offense is to force them to write positives first. We do that in our product vision. It help set the stage. I also never respond to one negative with one positive. The equation is lopsided in tit for tat. One bad has more points that one good, even when it is a home run of a zinger.
Another good comeback is to challenge. Get them to write the list of possibilities for good. What are the 5 success factors? What do you think will be the five most used features? If that is a problem, what are three possible solutions?
But be careful. Never ask, "so, what would you suggest instead?" This is too open. Ten to one, this guy hasn't a clue. At least I've yet to meet one that had enough mental foresight to buy even a discount clue. They are dissing your idea because they are defending their empty wasteland of ideas. You'll hear the tension and anger in their voice. Tread carefully because exposing this fact will create a shit storm. Concentrate on the attack, not the attacker. You don't win a fight by questioning if the guy's father and mother were related before they were married.
Keep on point. Don't allow the conversation to waver away from the subject the guy is dissing. You can not reward negativity with a voice and a lever of power.
Get a copy of a book on how to argue and a few books on critical thinking. Keept the examples with you written on little cards with the reference. Put them in your slides to cut off the types of arguments you know you are going to hear. Think of the argument and disprove it before the peanut gallery even wakes up.
There are a lot of web resources, like this one. Just type illogical argument into Google to get a bunch.
BTW, you want to have the worst arguments and have the most animosity? Try running a meeting with Robert's Rules of Order. Take my word for it and don't let it happen to you. The issue is that all it takes is one negative space cowboy to take over. Put one guy in charge and force them to read a bunch on controlling meetings, critical thinking, and detecting illogical arguments.
Have a fantastic win against a negative nelly lately? How did you do it? Give us the play by play.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Magic and persuasion - I'd like to float an idea in front of you.
Flying, levitation, people just floating in the air. Imagine how you feel when you see a magician perform a trick that breaks the laws of physics. Our brains are wired to expect gravity. When someone floats into the air, you feel the hair go up on the back of your neck and the chill of goosebumps.
I'm not taking about watching David Blaine or Chris Angel on TV. I mean really seeing this live and in person. You feel like you just jumped out of an airplane - your stomach does a little twist like you are flying too. It is powerful stuff.
I tried a new trick last night. I am not really a good magician, but there are a few good tricks that work themselves and even the most honest magician - i.e. I feel bad that this is a trick and it shows - can pull off something that spins the audience's mind. In this case, just my girlfriend, but a group of 100 tomorrow. This trick is so good, I'll be doing it every presentation or talk in the coming months.
Quite simply, it is full body levitation. Flying up in the air seven inches or so (higher depending on circumstances). It is a bit incredible to see someone see you break the laws of physics. It is even more incredible when you say, "hey watch me do this new trick". People are still falling out of their chairs! It is a trick, they know it, you know it, but they still are surprised! The human brain just works that way. Even if you repeat the trick several times, people still can't stop having their minds twist at the sight.
The brain is predictive. That is how you can know a song fro the first three notes. But when you break that predictive pattern, all hell breaks loose. The brain is both confused and in a state that is far different than normal life. It is also in a state of newness. The brain is ready to see whatever is next because it has gotta figure this all out.
Persuasion can be this way too. Don't need to hide the fact that you are selling an idea or a product. It is in the art of surprise and stickiness of ideas that sell. Knowing it's just there to make decisions easier and entertaining helps drop resistance to the idea or sale.
The world is too full of blah blah blah buy me. It should be more empty hat (the problem), the rabbit (the solution), producing a rabbit from a hat (the idea/product).
You want to sell shoes, I got the trick for you! But I'd guess that anyone that can fly 'literally' through their presentation is going to be able to spin the freedom and power over the 'gravity' of the problem is going to make a sale.
I'm not going to give this trick away. I'm not even going to tell you where it is commercially available. It is for magicians. Are you a magician? Are you the witch doctor of your tribe? Let me know what your tricks are and I'll share mine.
Time to go. Gotta feed my rabbit.
I'm not taking about watching David Blaine or Chris Angel on TV. I mean really seeing this live and in person. You feel like you just jumped out of an airplane - your stomach does a little twist like you are flying too. It is powerful stuff.
I tried a new trick last night. I am not really a good magician, but there are a few good tricks that work themselves and even the most honest magician - i.e. I feel bad that this is a trick and it shows - can pull off something that spins the audience's mind. In this case, just my girlfriend, but a group of 100 tomorrow. This trick is so good, I'll be doing it every presentation or talk in the coming months.
Quite simply, it is full body levitation. Flying up in the air seven inches or so (higher depending on circumstances). It is a bit incredible to see someone see you break the laws of physics. It is even more incredible when you say, "hey watch me do this new trick". People are still falling out of their chairs! It is a trick, they know it, you know it, but they still are surprised! The human brain just works that way. Even if you repeat the trick several times, people still can't stop having their minds twist at the sight.
The brain is predictive. That is how you can know a song fro the first three notes. But when you break that predictive pattern, all hell breaks loose. The brain is both confused and in a state that is far different than normal life. It is also in a state of newness. The brain is ready to see whatever is next because it has gotta figure this all out.
Persuasion can be this way too. Don't need to hide the fact that you are selling an idea or a product. It is in the art of surprise and stickiness of ideas that sell. Knowing it's just there to make decisions easier and entertaining helps drop resistance to the idea or sale.
The world is too full of blah blah blah buy me. It should be more empty hat (the problem), the rabbit (the solution), producing a rabbit from a hat (the idea/product).
You want to sell shoes, I got the trick for you! But I'd guess that anyone that can fly 'literally' through their presentation is going to be able to spin the freedom and power over the 'gravity' of the problem is going to make a sale.
I'm not going to give this trick away. I'm not even going to tell you where it is commercially available. It is for magicians. Are you a magician? Are you the witch doctor of your tribe? Let me know what your tricks are and I'll share mine.
Time to go. Gotta feed my rabbit.
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